Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 15. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. UD Mutilvera have won six, drawn three and lost none of their last nine league games, 2.3 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D W W W W. CD Izarra have won eight, drawn one and lost none of their last nine league games, 2.8 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W D W W.
The numbers. UD Mutilvera score 1.7 and concede 0.3 a game over their last nine, with six clean sheets. UD Mutilvera average 13.3 shots (5.3 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.3 cards a game. CD Izarra score 2.9 and concede 0.4 a game over their last nine, with five clean sheets.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.31, rated 76% (UD Mutilvera: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 9; CD Izarra: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Full cover: GG/NG 2+: No at 1.10. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: UD Mutilvera 1-2 CD Izarra (9% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (CD Izarra the favourite), an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).