Plymouth Argyle vs Swindon Town
Match details. EFL Trophy, Group South - 5. Kick-off is Tue 10 Nov, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Home Park, Plymouth.
Form. Plymouth Argyle have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L L. Swindon Town have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W D.
The numbers. Plymouth Argyle score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Plymouth Argyle average 15.2 shots (4.6 on target) and 1.4 cards a game, with 53% of the ball. Swindon Town score 0.8 and concede one a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Swindon Town average 11.4 shots (3.6 on target) and 1.6 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Plymouth Argyle have won four, drawn one and lost three. Six of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Plymouth Argyle won three and Swindon Town won one. The last time they met, on 20 Sep 2022, it finished Plymouth Argyle 3-1 Swindon Town: Plymouth Argyle had 14 shots to 13, 39% of the ball, five yellow cards.
The case against. Swindon Town's record still gives them 28% to win.
The read. Plymouth Argyle to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Plymouth Argyle the likelier winners; both teams' records favour Plymouth Argyle. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%. Six of the last eight meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Plymouth Argyle or Draw at 1.14, rated 72% (Plymouth Argyle unbeaten in 4 of 6 at home; Swindon Town failed to win 4 of 5 away). Backup: GG/NG 2+: No at 1.22. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Plymouth Argyle 2-1 Swindon Town (10% chance).
The agreed story. Plymouth Argyle or the draw, an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Plymouth Argyle play a division above Swindon Town. Plymouth Argyle in their last cup games: won 4-0 v Alvechurch (4 divisions below), drew 2-2 at Newport County (a division below), won 5-1 v Crystal Palace U21. Swindon Town in their last cup games: lost 1-2 at Milton Keynes Dons (a division above), lost 0-2 v Newport County, lost 1-2 v Crystal Palace U21.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).