Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 14. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 12:00 Lagos time.
Form. UP Plasencia have won one, drawn six and lost three of their last ten league games, 0.9 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D D D W D. SP Villafranca have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten league games, 1.1 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L D W W.
The numbers. UP Plasencia score 0.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. SP Villafranca score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. SP Villafranca average 15.3 shots (6.0 on target), 4.0 corners and 3.7 cards a game.
The case against. UP Plasencia's record still gives them 23% to win.
The read. SP Villafranca to win. Their goals for and against make SP Villafranca the likelier winners; SP Villafranca are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or SP Villafranca at 1.43, rated 77% (SP Villafranca unbeaten in 3 of 5 away; UP Plasencia failed to win 5 of 5 at home). Backup: GG/NG 2+: No at 1.11. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: UP Plasencia 0-1 SP Villafranca (12% chance).
The agreed story. SP Villafranca or the draw, goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).