Match details. Campionato Sammarinese, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. SP Cailungo are 12th on 5 points after 7 games, 2 points behind San Giovanni, level on points with Pennarossa. A win would take them above San Giovanni. SP Tre Fiori are 5th on 16 points after 7 games, level on points with Cosmos, level on points with La Fiorita. A win would take them above Cosmos.
Form. SP Cailungo have won one, drawn three and lost four of their last eight league games, 0.8 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D D L W L. SP Tre Fiori have won five, drawn one and lost one of their last seven league games, 2.3 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W D W L W.
The numbers. SP Cailungo score one and concede 1.2 a game over their last eight, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. SP Cailungo average 8.6 shots (2.6 on target), 3.4 corners and 2.0 cards a game. SP Tre Fiori score 2.3 and concede 0.7 a game over their last seven, with five clean sheets. SP Tre Fiori average 13.8 shots (5.8 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings SP Cailungo have won none, drawn two and lost eight. Nine of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in seven. In the last four, SP Tre Fiori won four. The last time they met, on 8 Mar 2026, it finished SP Cailungo 2-3 SP Tre Fiori.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 84% against the records' 61%.
The read. No firm call: SP Tre Fiori are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. SP Tre Fiori are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour SP Tre Fiori. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: SP Cailungo 1-1 SP Tre Fiori (13% chance).
The agreed story. SP Tre Fiori or the draw, a tight game.
The league run. SP Cailungo: no win in their last three league games (D D L W L). SP Tre Fiori: one defeat in their last five league games (W D W L W).
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).