San Marino vs Belarus

Match details. UEFA Nations League, League C - 5. Kick-off is Thu 12 Nov, 20:45 Lagos time. It is played at San Marino Stadium, Serravalle. The referee is Goga Kikacheishvili.

What's at stake. San Marino are 4th on 0 points after 4 games, 7 points behind Finland. Belarus are 2nd on 7 points after 4 games, 2 points behind Albania, level on points with Finland. A win would take them above Albania. San Marino have nothing left to play for, while Belarus need the win.

Form. San Marino have won none, drawn none and lost ten of their last ten, 0.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. Belarus have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L D.

The numbers. San Marino score none and concede 4.8 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and five games without a goal. San Marino average 4.1 shots (1.1 on target), 2.1 corners and 3.0 cards a game, with 31% of the ball. Belarus score 0.8 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Belarus average 8.2 shots (3.0 on target), 3.5 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 43% of the ball.

Head to head. Belarus have won all of the last three meetings. Two of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 3 Oct 2026, it finished San Marino 0-4 Belarus: San Marino had 10 shots to 15, 40% of the ball, eight yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 86% against the records' 59%.

The read. No firm call: Belarus are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Belarus the likelier winners; Belarus are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Belarus; the meetings favour Belarus. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 1.5 goals at 90%, over 2.5 at 76%, under 4.5 at 69%. Two of the last three meetings went over 2.5.

The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.20, rated 85% (San Marino: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5; Belarus: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Full cover: Belarus Over/Under: Under 4.5 at 1.13. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: San Marino 0-3 Belarus (17% chance).

The agreed story. Belarus or the draw, an open game.

Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. San Marino in their last internationals: lost 1-2 at Albania, lost 0-4 at Belarus, lost 0-3 v Albania. Belarus in their last internationals: won 1-0 v Finland, won 4-0 v San Marino, drew 0-0 at Finland.

So. A banker match for Belarus not to lose.