Sri Lanka vs Bhutan
Match details. SAFF Championship, Group Stage - 1. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Bangabandhu National Stadium, Dhaka.
What's at stake. Sri Lanka are 2nd on 0 points after 0 games, 3 points behind Bangladesh, level on points with Bhutan. A win would take them level on points with Bangladesh. Bhutan are 3rd on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with Sri Lanka. A win would take them above Sri Lanka.
Form. Sri Lanka have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W W. Bhutan have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L L. In this competition Bhutan have gone L L.
The numbers. Sri Lanka score one and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Sri Lanka average 2.3 corners and 1.3 cards a game. Bhutan score 0.7 and concede 2.4 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and five games without a goal. Bhutan average 2.0 corners and 0.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Sri Lanka have won one, drawn none and lost two. Two of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 17 Mar 2015, it finished Sri Lanka 1-2 Bhutan.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 85% against the records' 54%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.
The read. No firm call: Sri Lanka are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make Sri Lanka the likelier winners; Sri Lanka are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Sri Lanka.
The bets. No best bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Sri Lanka 2-0 Bhutan (16% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Sri Lanka the favourite), goals in between.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Sri Lanka in their last internationals: won 3-2 at Mauritius (rated above them), won 2-0 at Seychelles, won 3-0 at Seychelles. Bhutan in their last internationals: lost 0-1 v Bangladesh. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).