Match details. Elite One, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Pwd Bamenda are 13th on 1 point after 3 games, 1 point behind Union Abong-Mbang, level on points with Gazelle. A win would take them above Union Abong-Mbang. Apejes de Mfou are 11th on 2 points after 3 games, 1 point behind Colombe, level on points with Union Abong-Mbang. A win would take them above Colombe.
Form. Pwd Bamenda have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten league games, 0.6 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L D L L L. Apejes de Mfou have won none, drawn two and lost one of their last three league games, 0.7 points a game. Their last three in the league, newest first: D L D.
The numbers. Pwd Bamenda score 1.6 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Pwd Bamenda average 9.2 shots (2.5 on target), 5.4 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Apejes de Mfou score one and concede 1.3 a game over their last three, with no clean sheets. Apejes de Mfou average 8.3 shots (2.7 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.7 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Pwd Bamenda have won three, drawn none and lost one. Four of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. The last time they met, on 15 Apr 2024, it finished Pwd Bamenda 3-1 Apejes de Mfou.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 21% against the records' 50%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.
The read. No firm call: Apejes de Mfou are the better side, but not at this price. Apejes de Mfou are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Apejes de Mfou.
The bets. No best bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Pwd Bamenda 1-1 Apejes de Mfou (13% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Apejes de Mfou the favourite), goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).