Atletico Madrid vs ADS Hortaleza
Match details. U19 Division de Honor Juvenil. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 18:00 Lagos time.
Form. Atletico Madrid have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W. ADS Hortaleza have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D W.
The numbers. Atletico Madrid score 2.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Atletico Madrid average 12.7 shots (6.2 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.9 cards a game. ADS Hortaleza score 1.6 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. ADS Hortaleza average 8.1 shots (3.6 on target), 3.4 corners and 2.7 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 88% against the records' 57%.
The read. No firm call: Atletico Madrid are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Atletico Madrid the likelier winners; Atletico Madrid are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Atletico Madrid. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 77%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.31, rated 77% (Atletico Madrid: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; ADS Hortaleza: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Full cover: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.38. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Atletico Madrid 2-1 ADS Hortaleza (10% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Atletico Madrid the favourite), an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).