Match details. U19 Division de Honor Juvenil. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. Deportivo Alaves have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L D. Athletic Bilbao have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W.
The numbers. Deportivo Alaves score 4.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Deportivo Alaves average 4.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Athletic Bilbao score two and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Athletic Bilbao average 12.0 shots (5.7 on target), 3.2 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Deportivo Alaves the likelier winners, but Athletic Bilbao are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Athletic Bilbao.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 86%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Deportivo Alaves 2-1 Athletic Bilbao (9% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Deportivo Alaves the favourite), an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Athletic Bilbao in their last cup games: won 6-1 at AE Prat. Too few cup games to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).