ISIND

19:00Sat 7 Nov

ADF

Independente Simao Dias SE vs AD Frei Paulistano SE

CLASS D

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THE READ

Match details. Sergipano, Serie A2, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 19:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. Independente Simao Dias SE are 5th on 2 points after 3 games, 2 points clear of América de Pedrinhas. AD Frei Paulistano SE are 1st on 6 points after 3 games, level on points with Socorrense.

Form. Independente Simao Dias SE have won one, drawn two and lost five of their last eight league games, 0.6 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W D L L D. AD Frei Paulistano SE have won five, drawn one and lost two of their last eight league games, 2.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W L W W.

The numbers. Independente Simao Dias SE score 0.8 and concede 2.6 a game over their last eight, with no clean sheets and five games without a goal. Independente Simao Dias SE average 0.5 corners and 1.5 cards a game. AD Frei Paulistano SE score 2.2 and concede one a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. AD Frei Paulistano SE average 5.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game.

Head to head. In the last two meetings Independente Simao Dias SE have won none, drawn one and lost one. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 15 Oct 2025, it finished Independente Simao Dias SE 0-3 AD Frei Paulistano SE.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 89% against the records' 57%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.

The read. No firm call: AD Frei Paulistano SE are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make AD Frei Paulistano SE the likelier winners; AD Frei Paulistano SE are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AD Frei Paulistano SE.

The bets. No best bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Independente Simao Dias SE 1-1 AD Frei Paulistano SE (12% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (AD Frei Paulistano SE the favourite), goals in between.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

AD Frei Paulistano SE or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ADF 5 of 6 (83%) · IND 4 of 5 (80%)66.4%

AD Frei Paulistano SE: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · Independente Simao Dias SE: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 90% · AD Frei Paulistano SE: only games against sides at Independente Simao Dias SE's level · Independente Simao Dias SE: only games against sides at AD Frei Paulistano SE's level

AD Frei Paulistano SE or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ADF 5 of 6 (83%) · IND 3 of 5 (60%)54.8%

AD Frei Paulistano SE: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · Independente Simao Dias SE: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 75% · AD Frei Paulistano SE: only games against sides at Independente Simao Dias SE's level · Independente Simao Dias SE: only games against sides at AD Frei Paulistano SE's level

Draw or Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

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IND 4 of 5 (80%) · ADF 3 of 6 (50%)48.7%

Independente Simao Dias SE: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · AD Frei Paulistano SE: the bet landed in 3 of 6 away · both last 10: 70% · Independente Simao Dias SE: only games against sides at AD Frei Paulistano SE's level · AD Frei Paulistano SE: only games against sides at Independente Simao Dias SE's level

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

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IND 4 of 5 (80%) · ADF 6 of 6 (100%)91.7%

Independente Simao Dias SE: over 0.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · AD Frei Paulistano SE: over 0.5 goals in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 95% · Independente Simao Dias SE: only games against sides at AD Frei Paulistano SE's level · AD Frei Paulistano SE: only games against sides at Independente Simao Dias SE's level

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.36

IND 4 of 5 (80%) · ADF 5 of 6 (83%)76.1%

Independente Simao Dias SE: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · AD Frei Paulistano SE: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 65% · Independente Simao Dias SE: only games against sides at AD Frei Paulistano SE's level · AD Frei Paulistano SE: only games against sides at Independente Simao Dias SE's level

Under 3.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.51

IND 4 of 5 (80%) · ADF 4 of 6 (67%)68.9%

Independente Simao Dias SE: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · AD Frei Paulistano SE: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 60% · Independente Simao Dias SE: only games against sides at AD Frei Paulistano SE's level · AD Frei Paulistano SE: only games against sides at Independente Simao Dias SE's level

Over 1.5 GoalsHELD · the odds board 86%

1.16

IND 4 of 5 (80%) · ADF 5 of 6 (83%)64.8%

Independente Simao Dias SE: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · AD Frei Paulistano SE: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 85% · Independente Simao Dias SE: only games against sides at AD Frei Paulistano SE's level · AD Frei Paulistano SE: only games against sides at Independente Simao Dias SE's level

AD FREI PAULISTANO SE GOALS

AD Frei Paulistano SE Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

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ADF 5 of 6 (83%) · IND 4 of 5 (80%)64.8%

AD Frei Paulistano SE scored in 5 of 6 away · Independente Simao Dias SE conceded in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 85% · AD Frei Paulistano SE: only games against sides at Independente Simao Dias SE's level · Independente Simao Dias SE: only games against sides at AD Frei Paulistano SE's level

AD Frei Paulistano SE Over 1.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

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ADF 4 of 6 (67%) · IND 3 of 5 (60%)47.6%

AD Frei Paulistano SE scored over 1.5 in 4 of 6 away · Independente Simao Dias SE conceded over 1.5 in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 70% · AD Frei Paulistano SE: only games against sides at Independente Simao Dias SE's level · Independente Simao Dias SE: only games against sides at AD Frei Paulistano SE's level

HALVES

1st Half Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

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IND 5 of 5 (100%) · ADF 5 of 5 (100%)97%

Independente Simao Dias SE: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · AD Frei Paulistano SE: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · on half-time scores · Independente Simao Dias SE: only games against sides at AD Frei Paulistano SE's level · AD Frei Paulistano SE: only games against sides at Independente Simao Dias SE's level

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.59

IND 3 of 5 (60%) · ADF 5 of 5 (100%)73.8%

Independente Simao Dias SE: the bet landed in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · AD Frei Paulistano SE: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 61% · on half-time scores · Independente Simao Dias SE: only games against sides at AD Frei Paulistano SE's level · AD Frei Paulistano SE: only games against sides at Independente Simao Dias SE's level

Left off the list: Both Teams to Score - No (the numbers (46%) and the records (71%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Independente Simao Dias SE Under 0.5 goals (the numbers (36%) and the records (62%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 11.5%

Independente Simao… goals →

AD Frei Paulistano SE goals ↓

0-07%

1-05%

2-03%

3-01%

4-00.3%

5-00.1%

0-110%

1-111%

2-16%

3-12%

4-10.5%

5-10.1%

0-210%

1-210%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.4%

5-20.1%

0-36%

1-36%

2-33%

3-31%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-43%

1-43%

2-41%

3-40.5%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-51.0%

1-51.0%

2-50.5%

3-50.2%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).

FORM · LAST 10

INDEPENDENTE SIMAO DIAS SELLLDLLDWLD0.60 PPG

AD FREI PAULISTANO SEDWLWWLWWWW2.20 PPG

THE NUMBERS

INDEPENDENTE SIMAO DIAS SE HOMExAD FREI PAULISTANO SE AWAY

0.60SCORED A GAME2.702.60CONCEDED A GAME0.8010%CLEAN SHEETS50%67%FAILED TO SCORE0%0.50CORNERS A GAME5.001.50CARDS A GAME2.00

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2

INDEPENDENTE SIMAO DIAS SE 0 · 0%DRAW 1AD FREI PAULISTANO SE 1 · 50%

2024-10-23Independente Simao Dias SE 0 – 0 AD Frei Paulistano SE

2025-10-15Independente Simao Dias SE 0 – 3 AD Frei Paulistano SE

TRENDS

Independente Simao Dias SE have scored in 30% of their games.

AD Frei Paulistano SE have scored in 80% of their games.

Independente Simao Dias SE kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

AD Frei Paulistano SE kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards