CMCPM

20:00Tue 10 Nov

REA

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas vs Real Jaen CF

CLASS D

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THE READ

Match details. Copa del Rey, Round of 128. Kick-off is Tue 10 Nov, 20:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. CP Mijas-Las Lagunas have won three, drawn six and lost one of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D W W. Real Jaen CF have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W D.

The numbers. CP Mijas-Las Lagunas score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Real Jaen CF score one and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal.

Head to head. In the last two meetings CP Mijas-Las Lagunas have won one, drawn one and lost none. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 18 Jan 2025, it finished CP Mijas-Las Lagunas 3-0 Real Jaen CF.

The case against. A knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and CP Mijas-Las Lagunas are not clearly stronger.

The read. CP Mijas-Las Lagunas or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make CP Mijas-Las Lagunas the likelier winners; CP Mijas-Las Lagunas are the stronger side on form and the table.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: CP Mijas-Las Lagunas 1-1 Real Jaen CF (12% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Real Jaen CF the favourite), a tight game.

Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Real Jaen CF play a division above CP Mijas-Las Lagunas. Too few cup games on either side to read.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Real Jaen CF to Win Both Halves: NoPAGE ONLY

1.12

REA 5 of 5 (100%) · CPM 9 of 10 (90%)91.6%

Real Jaen CF: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · on half-time scores

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas to Win to Nil: NoTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.10

CPM 10 of 10 (100%) · REA 4 of 5 (80%)73.7%

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 95% · the call is CP Mijas-Las Lagunas or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and CP Mijas-Las Lagunas are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas or Under 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.48

CPM 8 of 10 (80%) · REA 5 of 5 (100%)65.3%

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · the call is CP Mijas-Las Lagunas or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and CP Mijas-Las Lagunas are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

Draw or Over 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.37

CPM 10 of 10 (100%) · REA 3 of 5 (60%)63.7%

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · the call is CP Mijas-Las Lagunas or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and CP Mijas-Las Lagunas are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

Real Jaen CF win or both teams scoreLEANHELD · the odds board 83%

1.21

REA 3 of 5 (60%) · CPM 9 of 10 (90%)60.3%

Real Jaen CF: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85%

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas or Both Teams ScoreTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.44

CPM 8 of 10 (80%) · REA 3 of 5 (60%)53.7%

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · the call is CP Mijas-Las Lagunas or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and CP Mijas-Las Lagunas are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

Real Jaen CF or Under 2.5 GoalsLEANHELD · the odds board 83%

1.21

REA 4 of 5 (80%) · CPM 6 of 10 (60%)50.3%

Real Jaen CF: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65%

Draw or Under 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.65

CPM 6 of 10 (60%) · REA 4 of 5 (80%)50.3%

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 65% · the call is CP Mijas-Las Lagunas or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and CP Mijas-Las Lagunas are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas or Draw & Over 1.5LEANPAGE ONLY

2.35

CPM 8 of 10 (80%) · REA 3 of 5 (60%)44.3%

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 65%

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.12

CPM 9 of 10 (90%) · REA 4 of 5 (80%)88.2%

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 80%

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.29

CPM 9 of 10 (90%) · REA 3 of 5 (60%)61.7%

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 80%

CP MIJAS-LAS LAGUNAS GOALS

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.44

CPM 8 of 10 (80%) · REA 3 of 5 (60%)53.7%

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas scored in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF conceded in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 75%

REAL JAEN CF GOALS

Real Jaen CF Under 2.5 goalsIN CODES

1.22

REA 4 of 5 (80%) · CPM 9 of 10 (90%)84.3%

Real Jaen CF scored under 2.5 in 4 of 5 away · CP Mijas-Las Lagunas conceded under 2.5 in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80%

Real Jaen CF Over 0.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 83%

1.21

REA 3 of 5 (60%) · CPM 9 of 10 (90%)60.3%

Real Jaen CF scored in 3 of 5 away · CP Mijas-Las Lagunas conceded in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85%

Real Jaen CF Under 1.5 goalsIN CODES

1.77

REA 4 of 5 (80%) · CPM 7 of 10 (70%)52%

Real Jaen CF scored under 1.5 in 4 of 5 away · CP Mijas-Las Lagunas conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 60%

HALVES

Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.10

CPM 7 of 10 (70%) · REA 4 of 5 (80%)85.5%

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores

2nd Half - Real Jaen CF Over/Under: Under 1.5PAGE ONLY

1.22

REA 5 of 5 (100%) · CPM 9 of 10 (90%)84.7%

Real Jaen CF: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores

Excluded Number of Goals - First Half: 2PAGE ONLY

1.21

CPM 8 of 10 (80%) · REA 5 of 5 (100%)77.4%

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.24

CPM 8 of 10 (80%) · REA 4 of 5 (80%)77.3%

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores

1st Half Real Jaen CF to Win to Nil: NoPAGE ONLY

1.38

CPM 8 of 10 (80%) · REA 5 of 5 (100%)77.2%

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.39

CPM 7 of 10 (70%) · REA 2 of 5 (40%)74.1%

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Jaen CF: the bet landed in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 65% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: CP Mijas-Las Lagunas or Over 2.5 Goals (the numbers (71%) and the records (48%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.2%

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas goals →

Real Jaen CF goals ↓

0-06%

1-09%

2-08%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.5%

0-16%

1-112%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.7%

0-24%

1-27%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.5%

5-30.2%

0-40.6%

1-40.9%

2-40.7%

3-40.4%

4-40.2%

5-40.1%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).

FORM · LAST 10

CP MIJAS-LAS LAGUNASLDDWDWWDDD1.50 PPG

REAL JAEN CFDWWLDDWDWL1.60 PPG

THE NUMBERS

CP MIJAS-LAS LAGUNAS HOMExREAL JAEN CF AWAY

1.80SCORED A GAME1.601.40CONCEDED A GAME1.5010%CLEAN SHEETS30%20%FAILED TO SCORE18%

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

PRICE NOT KEPT

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.50POINTS A GAME1.73+0.50GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.36+0.8SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-3.41.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.68LEAGUE GAMES11

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas: the quality side - more shots than it allows.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

83%

OKAY · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

46%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

91%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 11 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

CP MIJAS-LAS LAGUNASxREAL JAEN CF

5GAMES51.60SCORED A GAME2.200.80CONCEDED A GAME2.002.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES4.280%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%80%BOTH SCORE80%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2

CP MIJAS-LAS LAGUNAS 1 · 50%DRAW 1REAL JAEN CF 0 · 0%

2024-09-08CP Mijas-Las Lagunas 1 – 1 Real Jaen CF

2025-01-18CP Mijas-Las Lagunas 3 – 0 Real Jaen CF

TRENDS

CP Mijas-Las Lagunas failed to score in 20% of their games.

Real Jaen CF failed to score in 18% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againsthead to head