Match details. Liga Primera Premier, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 22:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Racing de Veracruz are 2nd on 21 points after 9 games, 6 points behind Irapuato, 2 points clear of Celaya. Irapuato are 1st on 27 points after 9 games, 6 points clear of Racing de Veracruz.
Form. Racing de Veracruz have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W D. Irapuato have won nine, drawn one and lost none of their last ten, 2.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W.
The numbers. Racing de Veracruz score two and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Racing de Veracruz average 12.3 shots (8.2 on target), 4.5 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Irapuato score 2.2 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. Irapuato average 11.9 shots (5.9 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Racing de Veracruz have won three, drawn none and lost one. Two of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 12 May 2024, it finished Racing de Veracruz 1-0 Irapuato.
The case against. Racing de Veracruz's record still gives them 39% to win.
The read. Irapuato to win. An open game. Irapuato are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Irapuato. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.21, rated 76% (Racing de Veracruz: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 9; Irapuato: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 9). Predicted score: Racing de Veracruz 1-2 Irapuato (8% chance).
The agreed story. Irapuato or the draw, an open game.
The league run. Irapuato: unbeaten in their last five league games (W W W W W).
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).