Joinville EC SC vs Hercilio Luz FC SC
Match details. Copa Santa Catarina, Semi-finals. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 19:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Joinville EC SC have won six, drawn none and lost four of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W. Hercilio Luz FC SC have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L W.
The numbers. Joinville EC SC score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Joinville EC SC average 5.5 shots (2.8 on target), 6.6 corners and 3.4 cards a game. Hercilio Luz FC SC score two and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Hercilio Luz FC SC average 12.1 shots (4.5 on target), 5.5 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Joinville EC SC have won none, drawn two and lost six. Four of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, one was drawn and Hercilio Luz FC SC won three. The last time they met, on 12 Sep 2026, it finished Joinville EC SC 1-3 Hercilio Luz FC SC.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Joinville EC SC the likelier winners, but both teams' records favour Hercilio Luz FC SC; the meetings favour Hercilio Luz FC SC.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Joinville EC SC 2-1 Hercilio Luz FC SC (9% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Joinville EC SC the favourite), an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Joinville EC SC in their last cup games: won 3-0 v Metropolitano SC, lost 0-1 at Figueirense FC SC. Hercilio Luz FC SC in their last cup games: drew 0-0 v Blumenau EC SC. Too few cup games to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).