FC Rodange 91 vs FC Koeppchen Wormeldange
Match details. Coupe de Luxembourg, Round of 32. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 18:30 Lagos time. It is played at Stade Joseph Philippart, Rodange.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. FC Rodange 91 have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L L. In this competition FC Rodange 91 have gone W. FC Koeppchen Wormeldange have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W W.
The numbers. FC Rodange 91 score 1.3 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. FC Koeppchen Wormeldange score 1.5 and concede two a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 68% against the records' 48%.
The read. No firm call: FC Rodange 91 are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make FC Rodange 91 the likelier winners; both teams' records favour FC Rodange 91. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: FC Rodange 91 2-1 FC Koeppchen Wormeldange (9% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (FC Rodange 91 the favourite), an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).