Em Mahdia vs AS Megrine
Match details. Ligue 2. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 14:30 Lagos time.
Form. Em Mahdia have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D D W. AS Megrine have won three, drawn six and lost one of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W D.
The numbers. Em Mahdia score 1.6 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Em Mahdia average 2.0 cards a game. AS Megrine score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. AS Megrine average 11.5 shots (5.8 on target), 5.5 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 54% against the records' 28%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The read. No firm call: Em Mahdia are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make Em Mahdia the likelier winners; Em Mahdia are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. No best bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Em Mahdia 1-1 AS Megrine (13% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Em Mahdia the favourite), goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).