Alecrim RN vs Palmeira FC RN
Match details. Potiguar, 2. Divisao. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 19:30 Lagos time.
Form. Alecrim RN have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten league games, 1.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D W W L L. Palmeira FC RN have won four, drawn one and lost none of their last five league games, 2.6 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W D W W.
The numbers. Alecrim RN score two and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Alecrim RN average 15.5 shots (7.2 on target), 5.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game. Palmeira FC RN score 1.6 and concede 0.2 a game over their last five, with four clean sheets. Palmeira FC RN average 9.7 shots (3.7 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.3 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.36, rated 77% (Alecrim RN: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; Palmeira FC RN: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10). Full cover: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.24. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Alecrim RN 1-1 Palmeira FC RN (14% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Alecrim RN the favourite), a tight game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).