Kaya FC vs PFC Nasaf

Match details. AFC Women's Champions League. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 15:30 Lagos time.

Form. Kaya FC have won two, drawn three and lost three of their last eight, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W W. PFC Nasaf have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W.

The numbers. Kaya FC score 1.5 and concede 2.4 a game over their last eight, with three clean sheets and five games without a goal. Kaya FC average 2.7 shots (1.0 on target), 1.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game. PFC Nasaf score 2.7 and concede 0.6 a game in their last seven away, with four clean sheets. PFC Nasaf average 5.3 shots (2.9 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.1 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 97% against the records' 53%.

The read. No firm call: PFC Nasaf are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make PFC Nasaf the likelier winners; PFC Nasaf are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour PFC Nasaf. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Kaya FC 1-2 PFC Nasaf (9% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (PFC Nasaf the favourite), an open game.

Cup and European games. The Champions League: the best against the best, and the two league tables cannot be compared. PFC Nasaf in their last continental games: won 3-2 at Kuwait SC, lost 0-1 v Kuwait SC. Too few continental games to judge the side from.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.