Match details. AFC Women's Champions League. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 13:30 Lagos time.
Form. Bam Khatoon FC have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D W. Ayeyawady FC have won three, drawn none and lost two of their last five, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W W.
The numbers. Bam Khatoon FC score 1.3 and concede 2.1 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Bam Khatoon FC average 3.2 shots (2.2 on target), 1.2 corners and 1.8 cards a game. Ayeyawady FC score 2.6 and concede 1.8 a game over their last five, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Ayeyawady FC average 0.3 corners and 1.3 cards a game.
The case against. Bam Khatoon FC's record still gives them 40% to win.
The read. Ayeyawady FC to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Ayeyawady FC the likelier winners; Ayeyawady FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Ayeyawady FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Bam Khatoon FC 1-2 Ayeyawady FC (9% chance).
The agreed story. Ayeyawady FC or the draw, an open game.
Cup and European games. The Champions League: the best against the best, and the two league tables cannot be compared. Too few continental games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).