Match details. Derde Divisie. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 18:00 Lagos time.
Form. Dongen have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W D. VV Noordwijk have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W.
The numbers. Dongen score 2.8 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Dongen average 4.5 corners and 1.5 cards a game. VV Noordwijk score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. VV Noordwijk average 7.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
The case against. Dongen's record still gives them 23% to win.
The read. VV Noordwijk to win. An open game. VV Noordwijk are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour VV Noordwijk. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 81%.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or VV Noordwijk at 1.13, rated 77% (VV Noordwijk unbeaten in 7 of 8; Dongen failed to win 6 of 9). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.33. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Dongen 1-2 VV Noordwijk (9% chance).
The agreed story. VV Noordwijk or the draw, an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).