Match details. Campionato Sammarinese, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. SS Folgore Falciano Calcio are 1st on 19 points after 7 games, level on points with Virtus. SS Virtus are 2nd on 19 points after 7 games, level on points with Folgore, 2 points clear of Tre Penne. A win would take them above Folgore.
Form. SS Folgore Falciano Calcio have won six, drawn one and lost none of their last seven league games, 2.7 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D W W W W. SS Virtus have won six, drawn one and lost none of their last seven league games, 2.7 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W W W W.
The numbers. SS Folgore Falciano Calcio score 2.6 and concede 0.6 a game over their last seven, with three clean sheets. SS Folgore Falciano Calcio average 13.7 shots (3.7 on target), 7.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game. SS Virtus score 1.9 and concede 0.3 a game over their last seven, with six clean sheets. SS Virtus average 12.5 shots (5.2 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings SS Folgore Falciano Calcio have won one, drawn two and lost seven. Two of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, SS Virtus won four. The last time they met, on 21 Jan 2026, it finished SS Folgore Falciano Calcio 1-2 SS Virtus.
The case against. SS Folgore Falciano Calcio's record still gives them 24% to win.
The read. SS Virtus to win. A tight game. SS Virtus are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour SS Virtus; the meetings favour SS Virtus. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 37%. Eight of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: SS Folgore Falciano Calcio 0-1 SS Virtus (8% chance).
The agreed story. SS Virtus or the draw, a tight game.
The league run. SS Folgore Falciano Calcio: unbeaten in their last five league games (D W W W W). SS Virtus: unbeaten in their last five league games (W W W W W).
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).