Match details. Gamma Ethniki, Group 4 - 7. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. AO Anthoupolis Larisas are 3rd on 10 points after 6 games, 2 points behind Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou, 1 point clear of Elassona. A win would take them above Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou. Iraklis Larisas are 11th on 1 point after 6 games, 1 point behind Digenis Neochori. A win would take them above Digenis Neochori.
Form. AO Anthoupolis Larisas have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W. Iraklis Larisas have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L L.
The numbers. AO Anthoupolis Larisas score 1.7 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. AO Anthoupolis Larisas average 9.1 shots (3.6 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.5 cards a game. Iraklis Larisas score 0.6 and concede three a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Iraklis Larisas average 3.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%.
The read. AO Anthoupolis Larisas to win. Their goals for and against make AO Anthoupolis Larisas the likelier winners; AO Anthoupolis Larisas are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AO Anthoupolis Larisas.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: AO Anthoupolis Larisas 2-0 Iraklis Larisas (11% chance).
The agreed story. AO Anthoupolis Larisas or the draw, goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).