USM Alger: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · Mamelodi Sundowns: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · both last 10: 80%
· main loses on: 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-3, 1-3, 0-4, 2-3, 1-4, 0-5, 2-4, 1-5, 0-6 and 43 more up to 10-10 | hedge wins on all of them
THE READ
Match details. CAF Super Cup, Final. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Pretoria.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Mamelodi Sundowns have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D D. USM Alger have won four, drawn five and lost one of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L W.
The numbers. Mamelodi Sundowns score two and concede 0.5 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. Mamelodi Sundowns average 18.5 shots (8.5 on target), 8.5 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 66% of the ball. USM Alger score 1.5 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. USM Alger average 6.6 shots (3.8 on target), 3.3 corners and 1.6 cards a game.
Head to head. Mamelodi Sundowns have won all of the last two meetings. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 11 Jan 2020, it finished Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 USM Alger: Mamelodi Sundowns had 10 shots to 4, 69% of the ball, three yellow cards.
The case against. A knockout game (Final) with penalties if level, and Mamelodi Sundowns are not clearly stronger.
The read. Mamelodi Sundowns or the draw. Their goals for and against make Mamelodi Sundowns the likelier winners; Mamelodi Sundowns are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Mamelodi Sundowns.
The bets. Best bet: Mamelodi Sundowns or Draw at 1.16, rated 82% (Mamelodi Sundowns unbeaten in 6 of 6 at home; USM Alger failed to win 4 of 6 away). Full cover: Over 0.5 Goals at 1.09. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Mamelodi Sundowns 1-1 USM Alger (13% chance).
The agreed story. Mamelodi Sundowns or the draw, goals in between.
Cup and European games. A continental night: sides from different leagues, and the two league tables cannot be compared. Mamelodi Sundowns in their last continental games: drew 1-1 v Wiliete SC, drew 0-0 at Wiliete SC, won 2-1 v Al Ahli Saudi FC. Too few continental games to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Mamelodi Sundowns or Draw (1UP)PAGE ONLY
no price yet
MAM 5 of 5 (100%) · USM 6 of 6 (100%)90.9%
Mamelodi Sundowns scored first 5 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 5 · led or was unbeaten in 6 of 6 at home · USM Alger trailed or failed to win in 4 of 6 away
Mamelodi Sundowns to Win Both Halves: NoTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.15
MAM 5 of 6 (83%) · USM 6 of 6 (100%)89.4%
Mamelodi Sundowns: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · USM Alger: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores · the call is Mamelodi Sundowns or the draw: a knockout game (Final) with penalties if level, and Mamelodi Sundowns are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
2nd Half - Double Chance: Mamelodi Sundowns or DrawPAGE ONLY
1.16
MAM 5 of 6 (83%) · USM 5 of 6 (83%)84.2%
Mamelodi Sundowns: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · USM Alger: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores
Double Chance: Mamelodi Sundowns or DrawMAININ CODES
1.15
MAM 6 of 6 (100%) · USM 4 of 6 (67%)83.4%
Mamelodi Sundowns unbeaten in 6 of 6 at home · USM Alger failed to win 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 80%
USM Alger (0:2 handicap)IN CODES
1.36
USM 6 of 6 (100%) · MAM 4 of 6 (67%)82.2%
USM Alger: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · Mamelodi Sundowns: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · both last 10: 80%
Mamelodi Sundowns or Both Teams ScoreTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.22
MAM 6 of 6 (100%) · USM 4 of 6 (67%)74.4%
Mamelodi Sundowns: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · USM Alger: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 75% · the call is Mamelodi Sundowns or the draw: a knockout game (Final) with penalties if level, and Mamelodi Sundowns are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
Mamelodi Sundowns to Win Either Half: YesTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.39
MAM 6 of 6 (100%) · USM 3 of 6 (50%)72%
Mamelodi Sundowns: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · USM Alger: the bet landed in 3 of 6 away · both last 10: 60% · on half-time scores · the call is Mamelodi Sundowns or the draw: a knockout game (Final) with penalties if level, and Mamelodi Sundowns are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
Mamelodi Sundowns (Draw No Bet)PAGE ONLY
1.24
MAM 5 of 5 (100%) · USM 1 of 5 (20%)62%
Mamelodi Sundowns won 5 of 5 at home (draws left out) · USM Alger lost 1 of 5 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 60% · won 6, refunded 4, lost 2
Mamelodi Sundowns or Over 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.39
MAM 5 of 6 (83%) · USM 4 of 6 (67%)52%
Mamelodi Sundowns: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · USM Alger: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 60% · the call is Mamelodi Sundowns or the draw: a knockout game (Final) with penalties if level, and Mamelodi Sundowns are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
Draw or Under 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.44
MAM 3 of 6 (50%) · USM 5 of 6 (83%)51.4%
Mamelodi Sundowns: the bet landed in 3 of 6 at home · USM Alger: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 75% · the call is Mamelodi Sundowns or the draw: a knockout game (Final) with penalties if level, and Mamelodi Sundowns are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
Mamelodi Sundowns 1UPTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
no price yet
MAM 5 of 5 (100%) · USM 6 of 6 (100%)51%
Mamelodi Sundowns scored first 5 of last 5, led in 5 · led in 6 of 6 at home · USM Alger trailed in 2 of 6 away · the call is Mamelodi Sundowns or the draw: a knockout game (Final) with penalties if level, and Mamelodi Sundowns are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
Draw or Over 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.55
MAM 4 of 6 (67%) · USM 4 of 6 (67%)48.1%
Mamelodi Sundowns: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · USM Alger: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 65% · the call is Mamelodi Sundowns or the draw: a knockout game (Final) with penalties if level, and Mamelodi Sundowns are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
Mamelodi Sundowns to WinTAKEN DOWNHELD · the odds board 60%
1.66
MAM 5 of 6 (83%) · USM 1 of 6 (17%)37.4%
Mamelodi Sundowns won 5 of 6 at home · USM Alger lost 1 of 6 away · both last 10: 40% · the call is Mamelodi Sundowns or the draw: a knockout game (Final) with penalties if level, and Mamelodi Sundowns are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
GOALS
Over 0.5 GoalsFULL COVERIN CODES
1.09
MAM 6 of 6 (100%) · USM 5 of 6 (83%)91.1%
Mamelodi Sundowns: over 0.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home · USM Alger: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 90%
Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.18
MAM 5 of 6 (83%) · USM 3 of 6 (50%)66.8%
Mamelodi Sundowns: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home · USM Alger: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 6 away · both last 10: 70%
Over 1.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.48
MAM 4 of 6 (67%) · USM 4 of 6 (67%)58.9%
Mamelodi Sundowns: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 at home · USM Alger: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 70%
MAMELODI SUNDOWNS GOALS
Mamelodi Sundowns Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.22
MAM 6 of 6 (100%) · USM 4 of 6 (67%)80.6%
Mamelodi Sundowns scored in 6 of 6 at home · USM Alger conceded in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 75%
Mamelodi Sundowns Under 2.5 goalsIN CODES
1.20
MAM 4 of 6 (67%) · USM 6 of 6 (100%)65.9%
Mamelodi Sundowns scored under 2.5 in 4 of 6 at home · USM Alger conceded under 2.5 in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 85%
USM ALGER GOALS
USM Alger Under 1.5 goalsPAGE ONLY
1.14
USM 2 of 6 (33%) · MAM 6 of 6 (100%)69.8%
USM Alger scored under 1.5 in 2 of 6 away · Mamelodi Sundowns conceded under 1.5 in 6 of 6 at home · both last 10: 70%
USM Alger Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.88
USM 4 of 6 (67%) · MAM 3 of 6 (50%)42.6%
USM Alger scored in 4 of 6 away · Mamelodi Sundowns conceded in 3 of 6 at home · both last 10: 65%
HALVES
1st half - Mamelodi Sundowns Over/Under: Under 1.5PAGE ONLY
1.12
MAM 6 of 6 (100%) · USM 6 of 6 (100%)96.7%
Mamelodi Sundowns: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · USM Alger: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores
2nd Half USM Alger to Win to Nil: NoIN CODES
1.10
MAM 5 of 6 (83%) · USM 6 of 6 (100%)91.4%
Mamelodi Sundowns: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · USM Alger: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 85%
Over 0.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.52
MAM 4 of 6 (67%) · USM 4 of 6 (67%)67.8%
Mamelodi Sundowns: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · USM Alger: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 70% · on half-time scores
Under 1.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.29
MAM 5 of 6 (83%) · USM 3 of 6 (50%)66.1%
Mamelodi Sundowns: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · USM Alger: the bet landed in 3 of 6 away · both last 10: 65% · on half-time scores
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–112.9%
Mamelodi Sundowns goals →
USM Alger goals ↓
0-08%
1-011%
2-09%
3-05%
4-02%
5-00.5%
0-17%
1-113%
2-19%
3-15%
4-12%
5-10.6%
0-24%
1-26%
2-25%
3-22%
4-20.9%
5-20.3%
0-31%
1-32%
2-32%
3-30.8%
4-30.3%
5-30.1%
0-40.4%
1-40.6%
2-40.4%
3-40.2%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.1%
1-50.1%
2-50.1%
3-50.0%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).
FORM · LAST 10
MAMELODI SUNDOWNSWDWWWDDWWW2.40 PPG
USM ALGERDDDDWWLWDW1.70 PPG
THE NUMBERS
MAMELODI SUNDOWNS HOMExUSM ALGER AWAY
1.90SCORED A GAME1.500.50CONCEDED A GAME1.0050%CLEAN SHEETS40%0%FAILED TO SCORE29%8.50CORNERS A GAME3.331.50CARDS A GAME1.56
THE BANK
THE QUALITY READ
2.60POINTS A GAME2.00+1.80GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.71+6.3SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-1.32.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.010LEAGUE GAMES7
Mamelodi Sundowns: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, more shots than it allows.
MAMELODI SUNDOWNS 2:0 HANDICAP
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389 OF 413
PRICE NOT KEPT
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
88%
VERY GOOD · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
49%
NO · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
66%
NO · 85/90
MAMELODI SUNDOWNS OR DRAW
80%
OKAY · 80/85
USM ALGER OR DRAW
34%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (10 and 7 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
MAMELODI SUNDOWNSxUSM ALGER
5GAMES52.80SCORED A GAME1.600.80CONCEDED A GAME1.003.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.6100%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%80%BOTH SCORE40%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2
MAMELODI SUNDOWNS 2 · 100%DRAW 0USM ALGER 0 · 0%
2019-12-28Mamelodi Sundowns 1 – 0 USM Alger
2020-01-11Mamelodi Sundowns 2 – 1 USM Alger
TRENDS
Mamelodi Sundowns have scored in 90% of their games.
USM Alger have scored in 80% of their games.
Mamelodi Sundowns kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.
USM Alger kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headcornerscards