US Avranches vs Pontivy GSI
Match details. National 1, Group B - 9. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 18:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stade Rene Fenouillere, Avranches.
What's at stake. US Avranches are 2nd on 17 points after 8 games, 6 points behind Angoulême, level on points with Bayonne. Pontivy GSI are 14th on 5 points after 8 games, 2 points behind Saumur, level on points with Châteaubriant. A win would take them above Saumur.
Form. US Avranches have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L D. Pontivy GSI have won one, drawn five and lost four of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L D L.
The numbers. US Avranches score 1.7 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. Pontivy GSI score 1.6 and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Pontivy GSI average 4.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last six meetings US Avranches have won two, drawn two and lost two. Four of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, US Avranches won two and Pontivy GSI won two. The last time they met, on 22 Feb 2014, it finished US Avranches 2-1 Pontivy GSI.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%; four of the last six meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. A draw. An open game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%. Four of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.26, rated 79% (US Avranches: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10; Pontivy GSI: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 8). Full cover: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.33. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: US Avranches 2-2 Pontivy GSI (5% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (US Avranches the favourite), an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).