Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 9. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 12:00 Lagos time.
Form. CD Huetor Vega have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten league games, 1.3 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W D D L W. CD Alhaurino have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten league games, 1.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L D D W L.
The numbers. CD Huetor Vega score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. CD Huetor Vega average 14.7 shots (5.7 on target), 3.7 corners and 1.0 cards a game. CD Alhaurino score one and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. CD Alhaurino average 9.0 shots (2.9 on target), 3.6 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.
The case against. CD Alhaurino's record still gives them 22% to win.
The read. CD Huetor Vega to win. Their goals for and against make CD Huetor Vega the likelier winners; CD Huetor Vega are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. Best bet: CD Huetor Vega or Draw at 1.19, rated 78% (CD Huetor Vega unbeaten in 4 of 5 at home; CD Alhaurino failed to win 8 of 10). Predicted score: CD Huetor Vega 1-0 CD Alhaurino (13% chance).
The agreed story. CD Huetor Vega or the draw, goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).