AL Ahly SC (EGY) vs El Sekka El Hadid
Match details. Egypt Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 19:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. AL Ahly SC (EGY) have won eight, drawn two and lost none of their last ten, 2.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D W. El Sekka El Hadid have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D D W.
The numbers. AL Ahly SC (EGY) score 2.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets. AL Ahly SC (EGY) average 15.7 shots (6.3 on target), 6.2 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. El Sekka El Hadid score two and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. El Sekka El Hadid average 8.8 shots (3.8 on target), 5.1 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 82% against the records' 57%.
The read. No firm call: AL Ahly SC (EGY) are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make AL Ahly SC (EGY) the likelier winners; AL Ahly SC (EGY) are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AL Ahly SC (EGY). Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: AL Ahly SC (EGY) 2-1 El Sekka El Hadid (10% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (AL Ahly SC (EGY) the favourite), an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. AL Ahly SC (EGY) in their last cup games: won 1-0 v Al Mokawloon Al Arab. Too few cup games to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).