Al Yarmouk vs Al-Ahly Amman

Match details. First Division. Kick-off is Fri 6 Nov, 17:00 Lagos time.

Form. Al Yarmouk have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D D. Al-Ahly Amman have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L L.

The numbers. Al Yarmouk score 1.6 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Al Yarmouk average 10.4 shots (4.6 on target), 4.6 corners and 2.7 cards a game. Al-Ahly Amman score 0.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Al-Ahly Amman average 10.6 shots (3.5 on target), 4.5 corners and 2.4 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 42% against the records' 62%.

The read. No firm call: Al Yarmouk are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Al Yarmouk the likelier winners; Al Yarmouk are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Al Yarmouk. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.

The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.20, rated 78% (Al Yarmouk: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10; Al-Ahly Amman: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Al Yarmouk (Draw No Bet) at 1.71. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Al Yarmouk 1-1 Al-Ahly Amman (13% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Al Yarmouk the favourite), a tight game.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.