Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 16. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 11:30 Lagos time.
Form. Casalarreina CF have won one, drawn none and lost nine of their last ten, 0.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. Yague CF have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L W.
The numbers. Casalarreina CF score 0.6 and concede 2.5 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and five games without a goal. Casalarreina CF average 10.5 shots (3.0 on target), 2.5 corners and 3.5 cards a game. Yague CF score 1.3 and concede 2.3 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Yague CF average 9.8 shots (4.8 on target), 4.2 corners and 2.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 36% against the records' 60%.
The read. No firm call: Yague CF are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Yague CF the likelier winners; Yague CF are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Yague CF. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 80%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.21, 85% on the records (Casalarreina CF: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10; Yague CF: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10). Leave: Yague CF or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Casalarreina CF 1-2 Yague CF (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).