Match details. Serie D, Group I. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 14:30 Lagos time.
Form. AS Sambiase have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W L. Ragusa Calcio have won none, drawn three and lost seven of their last ten, 0.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D L.
The numbers. AS Sambiase score 1.8 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. AS Sambiase average 4.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Ragusa Calcio score 0.8 and concede 2.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Ragusa Calcio average 5.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 69% against the records' 90%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The read. No firm call: AS Sambiase are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make AS Sambiase the likelier winners; AS Sambiase are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AS Sambiase.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: AS Sambiase 1-0 Ragusa Calcio (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).