KS Pogradeci vs KS Beselidhja
Match details. Kategoria e Pare, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 13:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. KS Pogradeci are 6th on 14 points after 9 games, 1 point behind FK Kukesi, level on points with Besëlidhja Lezhë. A win would take them above FK Kukesi. KS Beselidhja are 7th on 14 points after 9 games, level on points with Pogradeci, 3 points clear of Kastrioti Krujë. A win would take them above Pogradeci.
Form. KS Pogradeci have won four, drawn five and lost one of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D D W. KS Beselidhja have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W D.
The numbers. KS Pogradeci score 2.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. KS Pogradeci average 12.4 shots (5.2 on target), 5.4 corners and 2.9 cards a game. KS Beselidhja score 0.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. KS Beselidhja average 13.2 shots (5.1 on target), 4.2 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last five meetings KS Pogradeci have won two, drawn one and lost two. Three of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, KS Pogradeci won two, one was drawn and KS Beselidhja won one. The last time they met, on 5 Feb 2022, it finished KS Pogradeci 1-0 KS Beselidhja.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 61% against the records' 37%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 41%; three of the last five meetings went over 2.5.
The read. No firm call: KS Pogradeci are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make KS Pogradeci the likelier winners; KS Pogradeci are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: KS Pogradeci 1-0 KS Beselidhja (16% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).