Bhutan vs Bangladesh
Match details. SAFF Championship, Group Stage - 1. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 15:00 Lagos time.
Form. Bhutan have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L L. In this competition Bhutan have gone L L. Bangladesh have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L W.
The numbers. Bhutan score one and concede two a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Bangladesh score 0.5 and concede 2.7 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. Bangladesh average 5.7 shots (2.0 on target), 4.3 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 41% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last five meetings Bhutan have won one, drawn one and lost three. Three of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Bhutan won one, one was drawn and Bangladesh won two. The last time they met, on 28 Jun 2023, it finished Bhutan 1-3 Bangladesh.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 77% against the records' 40%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%; three of the last five meetings went over 2.5.
The read. No firm call: Bangladesh are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make Bangladesh the likelier winners; Bangladesh are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Bangladesh.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Bhutan 1-1 Bangladesh (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).