Match details. 3rd Division. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 14:00 Lagos time.
Form. Naesby BK have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D L W. ASA Aarhus have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L L.
The numbers. Naesby BK score 2.3 and concede 1.8 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet. ASA Aarhus score 0.6 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal.
The read. Naesby BK to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Naesby BK the likelier winners; Naesby BK are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Naesby BK. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, 76% on the records (Naesby BK: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; ASA Aarhus: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: Naesby BK or ASA Aarhus at 1.24. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: ASA Aarhus or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Naesby BK); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Naesby BK 2-1 ASA Aarhus (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).