Match details. MFL, Division A. Kick-off is Fri 6 Nov, 11:00 Lagos time.
Form. Lokomotiv Moscow have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L L. FK Spartak Moscow have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L L L.
The numbers. Lokomotiv Moscow score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Lokomotiv Moscow average 7.3 corners and 2.0 cards a game. FK Spartak Moscow score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. FK Spartak Moscow average 6.0 corners and 1.9 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The case against. FK Spartak Moscow's record still gives them 32% to win.
The read. Lokomotiv Moscow to win. Lokomotiv Moscow are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Lokomotiv Moscow.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Lokomotiv Moscow or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Lokomotiv Moscow 1UP (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 FK Spartak Moscow (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).