South Hobart FC vs Lions FC
Match details. Australian Championship. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 05:00 Lagos time.
Form. South Hobart FC have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W D. Lions FC have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W.
The numbers. South Hobart FC score 2.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last seven at home, with one clean sheet. South Hobart FC average 16.0 shots (7.5 on target), 7.2 corners and 1.8 cards a game. Lions FC score 2.4 and concede one a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Lions FC average 17.7 shots (7.4 on target), 6.7 corners and 1.7 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 76% against the records' 54%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 77%.
The read. No firm call: Lions FC are the better side, but not at this price. Lions FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Lions FC.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: Lions FC or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: South Hobart FC 1-1 Lions FC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).