Bouri vs Etehad Alreef
Match details. First Division. Kick-off is Fri 6 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. Bouri have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D W. Etehad Alreef have won none, drawn two and lost eight of their last ten, 0.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L.
The numbers. Bouri score 0.8 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Bouri average 5.0 shots (2.2 on target), 4.6 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Etehad Alreef score 0.6 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Etehad Alreef average 6.2 shots (2.5 on target), 3.2 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 76% against the records' 55%.
The read. No firm call: Bouri are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Bouri the likelier winners; Bouri are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bouri. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Bouri or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Bouri or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Bouri 1-0 Etehad Alreef (16% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).