Lille vs Bayern Munich
Match details. UEFA Champions League. Kick-off is Wed 25 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time.
Form. Lille have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D L D. Bayern Munich have won six, drawn four and lost none of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W D.
The numbers. Lille score 1.5 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. Lille average 9.7 shots (4.0 on target), 4.1 corners and 1.9 cards a game. Bayern Munich score 2.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Bayern Munich average 20.9 shots (8.8 on target), 7.7 corners and 1.4 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 74% against the records' 50%.
The read. No firm call: Bayern Munich are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Bayern Munich the likelier winners; Bayern Munich are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bayern Munich. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.13, 82% on the records (Lille: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 at home; Bayern Munich: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Bayern Munich Over 1.5 goals (Lille's own games don't back it (2 of 6)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Lille 1-2 Bayern Munich (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).