Match details. UEFA Champions League. Kick-off is Tue 24 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time.
Form. Arsenal have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W D. Borussia Dortmund have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W W.
The numbers. Arsenal score 1.8 and concede one a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Arsenal average 12.2 shots (4.1 on target), 5.1 corners and 1.6 cards a game. Borussia Dortmund score one and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Borussia Dortmund average 13.0 shots (5.6 on target), 6.2 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.16, 78% on the records (Arsenal: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10; Borussia Dortmund: over 1.5 goals in 2 of 5 away). Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Arsenal 2-1 Borussia Dortmund (10% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
GOALS
Over 1.5 GoalsMAININ CODES
1.16
ARS 8 of 10 (80%) · BOR 2 of 5 (40%)77.8%
Arsenal: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Borussia Dortmund: over 1.5 goals in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 71% · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 2–19.9%
Arsenal goals →
Borussia Dortmund goals ↓
0-07%
1-011%
2-011%
3-07%
4-04%
5-01%
0-15%
1-111%
2-110%
3-16%
4-13%
5-11%
0-22%
1-24%
2-24%
3-23%
4-21%
5-20.5%
0-30.7%
1-31%
2-31%
3-30.8%
4-30.4%
5-30.2%
0-40.1%
1-40.3%
2-40.3%
3-40.2%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.0%
1-50.0%
2-50.0%
3-50.0%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).
FORM · LAST 10
ARSENALWLWWWDWDWW2.30 PPG
BORUSSIA DORTMUNDWWDLDWWWDW2.10 PPG
THE NUMBERS
ARSENAL HOMExBORUSSIA DORTMUND AWAY
1.80SCORED A GAME1.601.00CONCEDED A GAME0.9040%CLEAN SHEETS40%5.10CORNERS A GAME6.201.60CARDS A GAME2.00
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
OVER 1.5 CARDS
–
718 OF 767
NO PRICE YET
The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE QUALITY READ
2.67POINTS A GAME2.11+1.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.89-0.6SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+1.82.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.89LEAGUE GAMES9
No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
87%
VERY GOOD · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
83%
VERY GOOD · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
74%
NO · 85/90
ARSENAL OR DRAW
78%
NO · 80/85
BORUSSIA DORTMUND OR DRAW
51%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (9 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
ARSENALxBORUSSIA DORTMUND
5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME1.200.80CONCEDED A GAME0.802.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.060%OVER 1.5 GOALS40%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%20%BOTH SCORE40%4.8CARDS IN THEIR GAMES4.211.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES9.8
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
TRENDS
Arsenal have scored in 90% of their games.
Borussia Dortmund have scored in 80% of their games.
Arsenal kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.
Borussia Dortmund kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards