Sabah Masazir vs Shamakhi FK
Match details. Premier League. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 14:30 Lagos time.
Form. Sabah Masazir have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W W. Shamakhi FK have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W D.
The numbers. Sabah Masazir score 2.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Sabah Masazir average 10.7 shots (4.3 on target), 3.6 corners and 1.6 cards a game. Shamakhi FK score 1.7 and concede 0.9 a game in their last seven away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Shamakhi FK average 3.6 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 81% against the records' 38%.
The read. No firm call: Sabah Masazir are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Sabah Masazir the likelier winners; Sabah Masazir are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, 78% on the records (Sabah Masazir: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 7; Shamakhi FK: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 away). Full cover: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.10. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: Sabah Masazir 2-1 Shamakhi FK (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).