Neftchi Baku PFC vs FK Kapaz
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Fri 6 Nov, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Neftçi Arena, Baku.
What's at stake. Neftchi Baku PFC are 1st on 21 points after 10 games, 1 point clear of Sabah FA. FK Kapaz are 5th on 17 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Turan, 1 point clear of Zira. A win would take them above Turan.
Form. Neftchi Baku PFC have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D D W. In this competition Neftchi Baku PFC have gone W D D D W W. FK Kapaz have won five, drawn two and lost two of their last nine, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W D. In this competition FK Kapaz have gone W W D W D W.
The numbers. Neftchi Baku PFC score 2.5 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. FK Kapaz score 1.1 and concede one a game over their last nine, with four clean sheets.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Neftchi Baku PFC have won seven, drawn one and lost two. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Neftchi Baku PFC won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 23 May 2026, it finished Neftchi Baku PFC 1-0 FK Kapaz.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 72% against the records' 48%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%; six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.
The read. No firm call: Neftchi Baku PFC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Neftchi Baku PFC the likelier winners; Neftchi Baku PFC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Neftchi Baku PFC; the meetings favour Neftchi Baku PFC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Neftchi Baku PFC are a clear winner, no Unders); Neftchi Baku PFC Over 1.5 Goals (FK Kapaz's own games don't back it (2 of 9)); Under 5.5 Goals (Neftchi Baku PFC are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Neftchi Baku PFC 2-1 FK Kapaz (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).