Qarabag vs Turan Tovuz
Match details. Premier League. Kick-off is Fri 6 Nov, 15:00 Lagos time.
Form. Qarabag have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D W W. Turan Tovuz have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W W.
The numbers. Qarabag score 1.3 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and two games without a goal. Qarabag average 12.6 shots (4.3 on target), 7.6 corners and 1.9 cards a game. Turan Tovuz score 0.8 and concede one a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Turan Tovuz average 4.2 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 65% against the records' 42%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 24%.
The read. No firm call: Qarabag are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Qarabag the likelier winners; Qarabag are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. Best bet: Qarabag or Draw at 1.14, 88% on the records (a proven pattern for games read like this one (team or draw)). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Qarabag 2-1 Turan Tovuz (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).