Match details. Sergipano, Serie A2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov, 19:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Independente Simao Dias SE are 5th on 1 point after 2 games, 1 point clear of América de Pedrinhas. Barra SE are 6th on 1 point after 2 games.
Form. Independente Simao Dias SE have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W D L. In this competition Independente Simao Dias SE have gone L D W D L L. Barra SE have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L L. In this competition Barra SE have gone L D.
The numbers. Independente Simao Dias SE score 1.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Independente Simao Dias SE average 1.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Barra SE score 0.6 and concede 4.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Barra SE average 2.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
The case against. Barra SE's record still gives them 36% to win.
The read. Independente Simao Dias SE to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Independente Simao Dias SE the likelier winners; Independente Simao Dias SE are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Independente Simao Dias SE. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Barra SE or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Independente Simao Dias SE); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Independente Simao Dias SE 2-1 Barra SE (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).