Match details. Northern Premier League Premier, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is Fri 6 Nov, 20:45 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Quorn FC are 15th on 18 points after 15 games, 1 point behind Whitby Town, 3 points clear of Stockton Town. A win would take them above Whitby Town. Alfreton Town FC are 11th on 23 points after 16 games, level on points with Bury, 2 points clear of Lancaster City. A win would take them above Bury.
Form. Quorn FC have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W D. In this competition Quorn FC have gone W D D W D W. Alfreton Town FC have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D L W. In this competition Alfreton Town FC have gone W D D L W L.
The numbers. Quorn FC score 2.6 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Quorn FC average 3.2 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Alfreton Town FC score 1.3 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Alfreton Town FC average 4.2 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.15, 77% on the records (Quorn FC: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Alfreton Town FC: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 10). Leave: Quorn FC or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Alfreton Town FC or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Quorn FC 2-1 Alfreton Town FC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).