Match details. Cymru Championship South, South - 14. Kick-off is Fri 6 Nov, 20:30 Lagos time. It is played at Stebonheath Park, Llanelli.
What's at stake. Llanelli Town are 16th on 2 points after 13 games, 9 points behind Llantwit Major. Pontardawe Town FC are 12th on 13 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Caerphilly Athletic, 1 point clear of Newport City. A win would take them above Caerphilly Athletic.
Form. Llanelli Town have won none, drawn one and lost nine of their last ten, 0.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. In this competition Llanelli Town have gone L L L L L L. Pontardawe Town FC have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W L. In this competition Pontardawe Town FC have gone W D W W L L.
The numbers. Llanelli Town score 0.7 and concede 3.2 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and six games without a goal. Llanelli Town average 0.5 corners and 2.5 cards a game. Pontardawe Town FC score one and concede two a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Pontardawe Town FC average 9.3 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last five meetings Llanelli Town have won four, drawn none and lost one. Four of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Llanelli Town won three and Pontardawe Town FC won one. The last time they met, on 29 Mar 2024, it finished Llanelli Town 5-0 Pontardawe Town FC.
Where it pulls both ways. Pontardawe Town FC are the form side, but the meetings favour Llanelli Town: in the last five meetings, Llanelli Town won four and Pontardawe Town FC won one.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 71%. Four of the last five meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Llanelli Town or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Pontardawe Town FC or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Llanelli Town 1-2 Pontardawe Town FC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).