Match details. Premier League. Kick-off is Sat 21 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. Coventry City have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W W. Crystal Palace have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D L.
The numbers. Coventry City score 1.3 and concede two a game in their last six at home, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Coventry City average 9.8 shots (4.2 on target), 3.7 corners and 1.6 cards a game. Crystal Palace score 0.8 and concede two a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Crystal Palace average 8.6 shots (3.4 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.1 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The case against. Crystal Palace's record still gives them 39% to win.
The read. Coventry City to win. Coventry City are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Coventry City.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Crystal Palace or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Coventry City); Crystal Palace or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs Coventry City). Predicted score: Coventry City 1-0 Crystal Palace (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).