ESTAC Troyes vs Le Havre
Match details. Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Fri 20 Nov, 20:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stade de l'Aube, Troyes.
What's at stake. ESTAC Troyes are 16th on 8 points after 9 games, level on points with Angers, 1 point clear of Le Mans. A win would take them above Angers. Le Havre are 18th on 2 points after 9 games, 5 points behind Le Mans.
Form. ESTAC Troyes have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L L L. Le Havre have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L.
The numbers. ESTAC Troyes score one and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. ESTAC Troyes average 12.1 shots (4.2 on target), 6.6 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 38% of the ball. Le Havre score 1.6 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Le Havre average 11.7 shots (4.9 on target), 4.9 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings ESTAC Troyes have won three, drawn one and lost four. Four of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, ESTAC Troyes won one and Le Havre won three. The last time they met, on 15 May 2021, it finished ESTAC Troyes 2-3 Le Havre: ESTAC Troyes had 22 shots to 7, 71% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. ESTAC Troyes are the form side, but the meetings favour Le Havre: in the last eight meetings, ESTAC Troyes won three, Le Havre won four and one was drawn.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: ESTAC Troyes or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); ESTAC Troyes or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); ESTAC Troyes or Both Teams Score (no result call). Predicted score: ESTAC Troyes 1-1 Le Havre (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).