Match details. Py1. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 11:30 Lagos time.
Form. Libertad Asuncion have won two, drawn none and lost two of their last four league games, 1.5 points a game. Their last four in the league, newest first: L W L W. Cerro Porteno Asuncion have won one, drawn one and lost one of their last three league games, 1.3 points a game. Their last three in the league, newest first: W D L.
The numbers. Libertad Asuncion score one and concede one a game over their last four, with one clean sheet. Libertad Asuncion average 13.0 shots (5.0 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. Cerro Porteno Asuncion score 1.7 and concede 1.7 a game over their last three, with no clean sheets. Cerro Porteno Asuncion average 11.6 shots (3.9 on target), 4.6 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.
The case against. Cerro Porteno Asuncion's record still gives them 40% to win.
The read. Libertad Asuncion or the draw. Libertad Asuncion are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. No best bet: the strongest pick did not fit the read of this game. Predicted score: Libertad Asuncion 2-1 Cerro Porteno Asuncion (9% chance).
The agreed story. Libertad Asuncion or the draw, goals in between.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Libertad Asuncion in their last cup games: won 3-1 v Independiente Campo Grande. Too few cup games to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).