Match details. AFC Women's Champions League. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov, 13:30 Lagos time.
Form. Ayeyawady FC have won three, drawn none and lost one of their last four, 2.2 points a game. Their last four, newest first: L W W W. INAC Kobe Leonessa have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W D.
The numbers. Ayeyawady FC score 3.2 and concede 1.8 a game over their last four, with three clean sheets. Ayeyawady FC average 0.5 corners and 1.5 cards a game. INAC Kobe Leonessa score 1.5 and concede two a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. INAC Kobe Leonessa average 15.7 shots (6.9 on target), 6.1 corners and 0.4 cards a game.
The read. Ayeyawady FC to win. Their goals for and against make Ayeyawady FC the likelier winners; Ayeyawady FC are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Ayeyawady FC 2-1 INAC Kobe Leonessa (9% chance).
The agreed story. Ayeyawady FC or the draw, goals in between.
Cup and European games. The Champions League: the best against the best, and the two league tables cannot be compared. Too few continental games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).