Kaya FC vs Melbourne City FC
Match details. AFC Women's Champions League. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov, 11:30 Lagos time.
Form. Kaya FC have won two, drawn three and lost two of their last seven, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W W L. Melbourne City FC have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W.
The numbers. Kaya FC score 1.7 and concede 1.7 a game over their last seven, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Kaya FC average 1.5 corners and 0.0 cards a game. Melbourne City FC score 2.4 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Melbourne City FC average 10.3 shots (4.0 on target), 4.8 corners and 0.6 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 94% against the records' 61%.
The read. No firm call: Melbourne City FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Melbourne City FC the likelier winners; Melbourne City FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Melbourne City FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Kaya FC 1-2 Melbourne City FC (10% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Melbourne City FC the favourite), an open game.
Cup and European games. The Champions League: the best against the best, and the two league tables cannot be compared. Too few continental games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).