UD Castellonense vs CD Alcoyano
Match details. Segunda Federacion, Group 3 - 10. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 11:45 Lagos time.
What's at stake. UD Castellonense are 4th on 16 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Deportiva Minera, 2 points clear of Cieza. A win would take them above Deportiva Minera. CD Alcoyano are 12th on 11 points after 8 games, level on points with Yeclano, 1 point clear of Poblense. A win would take them above Yeclano.
Form. UD Castellonense have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W L W. CD Alcoyano have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L W W.
The numbers. UD Castellonense score 1.2 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. UD Castellonense average 9.1 shots (5.0 on target), 4.1 corners and 4.1 cards a game. CD Alcoyano score 0.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. CD Alcoyano average 10.4 shots (4.0 on target), 6.1 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 37% against the records' 58%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 33%.
The read. No firm call: UD Castellonense are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make UD Castellonense the likelier winners; UD Castellonense are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour UD Castellonense.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: UD Castellonense 2-0 CD Alcoyano (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).