Pena Sport FC vs Terrassa FC
Match details. Segunda Federacion, Group 2 - 10. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Pena Sport FC are 9th on 12 points after 9 games, 2 points behind Ebro, 1 point clear of Reddis. A win would take them above Ebro. Terrassa FC are 4th on 18 points after 9 games, level on points with Olot, 1 point clear of Osasuna II. A win would take them above Olot.
Form. Pena Sport FC have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D L. Terrassa FC have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W D.
The numbers. Pena Sport FC score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Pena Sport FC average 7.7 shots (3.0 on target), 4.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game. Terrassa FC score 0.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Terrassa FC average 13.6 shots (5.4 on target), 5.3 corners and 2.4 cards a game.
The read. A draw. A tight game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 35%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Terrassa FC or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); Terrassa FC or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Terrassa FC or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Pena Sport FC 1-1 Terrassa FC (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).