Lucchese Calcio vs USD Sestri Levante 1919
Match details. Coppa Italia Serie D, Round of 32. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov, 14:30 Lagos time. It is played at Porta Elisa, Lucca.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Lucchese Calcio have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L D W. USD Sestri Levante 1919 have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L D W. In this competition USD Sestri Levante 1919 have gone W.
The numbers. Lucchese Calcio score 2.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Lucchese Calcio average 11.0 shots (4.8 on target), 7.0 corners and 2.5 cards a game. USD Sestri Levante 1919 score 0.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. USD Sestri Levante 1919 average 9.8 shots (3.7 on target), 2.5 corners and 1.3 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Lucchese Calcio have won two, drawn two and lost two. Two of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Lucchese Calcio won one, two were drawn and USD Sestri Levante 1919 won one. The last time they met, on 17 May 2025, it finished Lucchese Calcio 1-0 USD Sestri Levante 1919.
The case against. A knockout game (Round of 32) with penalties if level, and Lucchese Calcio are not clearly stronger.
The read. Lucchese Calcio or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Lucchese Calcio the likelier winners; Lucchese Calcio are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%. Four of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Lucchese Calcio or Draw at 1.13, 80% on the records (Lucchese Calcio unbeaten in 5 of 5 at home; USD Sestri Levante 1919 failed to win 4 of 5 away). Leave: Lucchese Calcio or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Lucchese Calcio or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Lucchese Calcio 1-1 USD Sestri Levante 1919 (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).